Saturday, May 21, 2005
Defensive Breakdown of the Season Series
Okay, just for kicks, here's the defensive breakdown for the Suns/Spurs season series. For those who are curious, I've divided them into two sections: the first is all three games, the second is the two victories that the Spurs had over Phoenix with Duncan and Ginobili playing.
Phoenix:
FG%: 49.5%
3pt FG%: 43.7%
Turnovers: 53
San Antonio Defensive Rebound Efficiency: 76.2%
Phoenix Losses:
FG%: 48.1%
3pt FG%: 45.4%
Turnovers: 38
San Antonio Defensive Rebound Efficiency: 77.1%
San Antonio:
FG%: 48.2%
3pt FG%: 28.3%
Turnovers: 34
Phoenix Defensive Reboudning Efficiency: 73.5%
San Antonio Wins:
FG%: 50.3%
3pt FG%: 32.3%
Turnovers: 22
Phoenix Defenisve Rebounding Efficiency: 68.0%
And of course, everybody's favorite useless statistic:
PPG allowed
Phoenix: 114.7
San Antonio: 108
Granted, the only stat that really matters in those games was who won the game, but I wanted to highlight the fact that these teams aren't as mismatched as the entire universe seems to believe.
Where the Spurs really nailed this Suns this season was on turnovers and offensive rebounds. The Suns' achilles heal all season has been the offensive glass. If the Spurs are going to stop the Suns, it's not going to be because the Suns can't put the ball in the hole. It will be because the Spurs beat the Suns on the offensive glass and force Nash to turn the ball over.
Phoenix:
FG%: 49.5%
3pt FG%: 43.7%
Turnovers: 53
San Antonio Defensive Rebound Efficiency: 76.2%
Phoenix Losses:
FG%: 48.1%
3pt FG%: 45.4%
Turnovers: 38
San Antonio Defensive Rebound Efficiency: 77.1%
San Antonio:
FG%: 48.2%
3pt FG%: 28.3%
Turnovers: 34
Phoenix Defensive Reboudning Efficiency: 73.5%
San Antonio Wins:
FG%: 50.3%
3pt FG%: 32.3%
Turnovers: 22
Phoenix Defenisve Rebounding Efficiency: 68.0%
And of course, everybody's favorite useless statistic:
PPG allowed
Phoenix: 114.7
San Antonio: 108
Granted, the only stat that really matters in those games was who won the game, but I wanted to highlight the fact that these teams aren't as mismatched as the entire universe seems to believe.
Where the Spurs really nailed this Suns this season was on turnovers and offensive rebounds. The Suns' achilles heal all season has been the offensive glass. If the Spurs are going to stop the Suns, it's not going to be because the Suns can't put the ball in the hole. It will be because the Spurs beat the Suns on the offensive glass and force Nash to turn the ball over.
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Combining those numbers mask some tendencies.
In Game 1, Spurs allowed the Suns to shoot 12 3 pointers, making 4.
In Game 2, Spurs allowed the Suns to shoot 21 3 pointers, making 11 (9 for 17 if you exclude OT).
In Game 3, Spurs allowed the Suns to shoot 15 3 pointers, making 6.
Add them up, and you get a nice percentage. But you lose sight of the fact that in two games, the Spurs did not allow the Suns to shoot (and thus make) many 3's.
This is the same little quirk at work when you look at the Spurs' 3pt % defense in the regular season. It is pretty bad (I think 25th), but hidden in there is that they allow very few attempts. They close out on the shooters and make them put the ball on the floor.
If the Spurs decide to continue this, then expect Amare to get his, but the number of 3pt attempts to drop far below the 22 they are averaging now.
In Game 1, Spurs allowed the Suns to shoot 12 3 pointers, making 4.
In Game 2, Spurs allowed the Suns to shoot 21 3 pointers, making 11 (9 for 17 if you exclude OT).
In Game 3, Spurs allowed the Suns to shoot 15 3 pointers, making 6.
Add them up, and you get a nice percentage. But you lose sight of the fact that in two games, the Spurs did not allow the Suns to shoot (and thus make) many 3's.
This is the same little quirk at work when you look at the Spurs' 3pt % defense in the regular season. It is pretty bad (I think 25th), but hidden in there is that they allow very few attempts. They close out on the shooters and make them put the ball on the floor.
If the Spurs decide to continue this, then expect Amare to get his, but the number of 3pt attempts to drop far below the 22 they are averaging now.
That's in interesting point, and one that obviously makes a significant difference for Phoenix, a team the relies on the 3 more than any other team. It's even more significant with Joe Johnson out, because he allows the other shooters to get cleaner looks because of his accuracy. San Antonio's closeout ability will disrupt Phoenix's rhythm even more. It's up to Steve Nash to keep the motor running.
It looks like the Spurs are a bit banged up for game one. Hopefully, the Suns can take advantage of that (even though they are banged up themselves) in order to protect the home court in this series. If the Suns can protect the home court and play for a split in San Antonio, the walls could come crashing down on the Spurs.
We'll see. It should be one hell of a series.
It looks like the Spurs are a bit banged up for game one. Hopefully, the Suns can take advantage of that (even though they are banged up themselves) in order to protect the home court in this series. If the Suns can protect the home court and play for a split in San Antonio, the walls could come crashing down on the Spurs.
We'll see. It should be one hell of a series.
Spurs can't win if Duncan isn't healthy. He'll probably defend Amare which means his dunk stats will more than likely be down a little. I don't expect the spurs to take game one. Its an away game and the Suns are too good to give up the first game on their home court.
Still, I have to watch and wait for everyone to say that the spurs will have to play better if they want to win the series. I don't care about too much about stats in this series. Look at the stats in the denver series and what carmelo was reduced to. Its all about matchups and I'm really not sure who will show up in this first game. Good luck.
Also, what do you think about the east series? I'm sure the pistons will win especially without Shaq at 100%
Still, I have to watch and wait for everyone to say that the spurs will have to play better if they want to win the series. I don't care about too much about stats in this series. Look at the stats in the denver series and what carmelo was reduced to. Its all about matchups and I'm really not sure who will show up in this first game. Good luck.
Also, what do you think about the east series? I'm sure the pistons will win especially without Shaq at 100%
Just a question but why does everyone make such a big deal about the stats that the suns have in the playoffs? I know they are good stats but they played some shitty ass teams and even you know that.
Spurs had good numbers and they played good teams not the grizzlies and not the mavs.
Spurs had good numbers and they played good teams not the grizzlies and not the mavs.
again...bad reffing leads to what could be the begining of the falls of the spurs in game 1. Suns get the call on their end but Spurs don't? That's horse shit and everyone knows it.
This is so typical of the suns. The refs are calling all the plays against the Spurs. No big deal cuz it will all change when the series goes to San Antonio.
okay, okay...we won game 1 but,...you guys will bounce back and win game 2. You guys will not go down without a fight. The Spurs will not go down without a fight so this series is up in the air.
This is what the playoffs is all about. Whoever wins in the west, I will cheer for. The pistons will be up for quite a surprise when the finals comes around. Your high scoring and high paced offense will be a change for either the Pistons or Heat.
I am all for the west to come out of the finals victorious. I love Nash and feel that the mavs messed up when they let him go. He deserves to win a championship and he is not done yet. Watching game 1, I was a little on edge and that's why I posted those comments. Either way, no matter who wins, the west will be vicorious.
I am aware that your team is the future so don't be mad that I want the spurs to win right now before your team becomes the dominant force out of the west.
This is what the playoffs is all about. Whoever wins in the west, I will cheer for. The pistons will be up for quite a surprise when the finals comes around. Your high scoring and high paced offense will be a change for either the Pistons or Heat.
I am all for the west to come out of the finals victorious. I love Nash and feel that the mavs messed up when they let him go. He deserves to win a championship and he is not done yet. Watching game 1, I was a little on edge and that's why I posted those comments. Either way, no matter who wins, the west will be vicorious.
I am aware that your team is the future so don't be mad that I want the spurs to win right now before your team becomes the dominant force out of the west.
Good call, Jason. Jim Jackson was nailing 3's left and right. If Joe comes back, I guarantee that they get more than 15 bombs off.
Anyway, accurate prediction. I'm not happy that you were right, but hey, what can I say. On to game two...
Anyway, accurate prediction. I'm not happy that you were right, but hey, what can I say. On to game two...
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