Rising Suns

Moving Shop

2005-05-23T21:10:00.000-07:00

Hey everyone. All future Rising Suns posts will be at my new home on the Most Valuable Network. It adds just a touch of legitamacy to what I'm doing.

Peace.

suns.mostvaluablenetwork.com

The Machine

2005-05-22T15:20:00.000-07:00

Tim Duncan operates at a level unlike any player in the NBA. Efficiency and production are his game. When he needs to step up, he does. During the season, Duncan is a 67% free throw shooter, but in the Spurs' dismantling of the Suns in game one of the Western Conference Finals, Duncan knocked down 8 of 10 and went 10 of 21 from the field going for 28 and 15, demonstrating, to nobody's surprise, that, yes, he is the best player in the NBA. If Duncan had a bad ankle, he certainly fooled me.

If game one showed me anything, it's that this series is not going to be a defensive struggle. While the Suns put up 114, shot 48.8% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc, San Antonio played a 51.7% trump card from the field. This series is going to be about offense, the problem for the Suns is that the Spurs run the single most efficient offensive machine in the NBA. Half court set? Best in the league. You want to run with them? They can keep up with anybody.

But this series is not going to be about defense. Not when the final score is 121-114 and both teams are shooting around 50%.

In a curious, and ultimately brilliant, defensive decision, Gregg Popovich put Tim Duncan on Quentin Richardson and had Bruce Bowen hound Shawn Marion. Q, who was invisible in the Dallas series, didn't bother to bring his 'A' game. Q passed up at least three wide-open threes because his confidence was shot. When he finally hit one, it was a relief, and I thought that Q would start to chuck up bombs for the remainder of the game. Marion, in the meantime, went 1-6 in this game and managed only 3 points. With the complete lack of production coming from two key starters, the Suns had to turn to their defense to create stops in the fourth quarter.

43 points later, San Antonio strutted off of the court with home court advantage in tow, and the chance to go up 2-0 in this series.

Joe Johnson was sorely missed in this game. He'd better be prepared to lace it up in game two. His presence will add depth to the Suns' bench and will stretch out San Antonio's perimeter defense beyond what I think they are capable of holding together.

The real killers in this game were the role players off of the bench for the Spurs. Brent Barry had a playoff career high with 21 points, 5-8 from downtown, and was deadly in the fourth quarter. Robert Horry also hit some huge shots down the stretch (what else is new?).

The Suns played with no intensity. In the fourth quarter, the Spurs two-point lead felt like a ten-point lead. The Suns just didn't get in their faces at any point in that fourth quarter.

In some ways, the Suns' play reminded me of the Mavs' play in game one of the semis; coming off an emotional closeout game, the Suns experienced a letdown. Naturally, the Suns look at game two as a must win. Going down 0-2 is not an option in this series, especially when taking on the most efficient basketball machine in the NBA.

Defensive Breakdown of the Season Series

2005-05-21T11:34:00.000-07:00

Okay, just for kicks, here's the defensive breakdown for the Suns/Spurs season series. For those who are curious, I've divided them into two sections: the first is all three games, the second is the two victories that the Spurs had over Phoenix with Duncan and Ginobili playing.

Phoenix:
FG%: 49.5%
3pt FG%: 43.7%
Turnovers: 53
San Antonio Defensive Rebound Efficiency: 76.2%

Phoenix Losses:
FG%: 48.1%
3pt FG%: 45.4%
Turnovers: 38
San Antonio Defensive Rebound Efficiency: 77.1%

San Antonio:
FG%: 48.2%
3pt FG%: 28.3%
Turnovers: 34
Phoenix Defensive Reboudning Efficiency: 73.5%

San Antonio Wins:
FG%: 50.3%
3pt FG%: 32.3%
Turnovers: 22
Phoenix Defenisve Rebounding Efficiency: 68.0%

And of course, everybody's favorite useless statistic:
PPG allowed
Phoenix: 114.7
San Antonio: 108

Granted, the only stat that really matters in those games was who won the game, but I wanted to highlight the fact that these teams aren't as mismatched as the entire universe seems to believe.

Where the Spurs really nailed this Suns this season was on turnovers and offensive rebounds. The Suns' achilles heal all season has been the offensive glass. If the Spurs are going to stop the Suns, it's not going to be because the Suns can't put the ball in the hole. It will be because the Spurs beat the Suns on the offensive glass and force Nash to turn the ball over.

Some Interesting Numbers

2005-05-21T10:43:00.000-07:00

Much is going to be made of the Suns' offense and (ostensible) lack of defense against the Spurs' vaunted, suffocating D.

Well, here are the defensive numbers breakdown for both series. Remember, both series went six games:

The defensive rebounding efficiency rating is the percentage of defensive rebounds taken down off of missed shots (Total missed shots minus offensive rebounds relinquished divided by total missed shots, so for San Antonio, there were 237 missed shots that counted for non-team rebounds. The Spurs gave up 74 offensive boards in the series. 163/237 gives my rebounding efficiency rating).

These numbers are for the entire series

Seattle
FG%: 45.0% (206/458)
3pt FG%: 26.9% (21/78)
Turnovers: 76
Spurs Defensive Rebounding Efficiency: 68.8% (163 DReb/74 OReb Given Up)

Dallas
FG%: 45.6% (255/559)
3pt FG%: 31.4% (33/105)
Turnovers: 75
Suns Defensive Rebounding Efficiency: 68.2% (199 DReb/93 OReb Given Up)

Obviously, to say that the Suns got more rebounds than San Antonio is deceiving, because there were 55 more missed shots on the defensive end in the Dallas/Phoenix series than in the San Antonio/Seattle series. On a similar note, points per game allowed is not a very telling statistic, because as I've been saying over and over again, more possessions lead to more shot attempts. Dallas attempted 101 more shots than Seattle did over the course of the series.

Those numbers look awfully similar for two teams that have such disparate defensive capabilities.

Makes you think a bit, doesn't it?

The Closeout II: Killer Instinct Doesn't Die

2005-05-20T22:09:00.000-07:00

Did you hear that? That noise? It's silence. A hush from those that said the Suns didn't have the killer instinct. It's a shocked look on the faces of the critics. It's Steven A. Smith backpeddaling desperately on ESPN after saying the Suns looked rattled in game six because, "Hey, playoffs."

That sound is Steve Nash hitting a clutch three at the end of regulation to send the game into overtime. That sound is the Suns roaring from a 16-point deficit with less than four minutes in the third quarter. That sound is the Mavericks hitting the Purple Wall in the fourth quarter as Phoenix ripped off a 22-6 run to tie up the contest. That sound is the killer instinct that is so important in the playoffs; the characteristic that the media has been slamming Phoenix all year long for lacking. That sound is the silence of those critics. Those critics that were wrong.

The silence.

And this is what they'll say now:

...the Suns haven't faced a team like San Antonio that can play grind-it-out defense night-in/night out. The Spurs have the #1 scoring defense and the #3 FG% in the NBA.

(The Suns' first round opponent, Memphis, was the #4 scoring defense in the NBA and the #6 defensive FG% in the league)

...if Amare has trouble against Erick Dampier, how's he going to fair against the front line of Mohammed, Duncan, and Rasho?

(In the two games in which the Spurs had Duncan up front to protect the rim, Amare dropped 37 and 35. In two losses, yes, but he made the Spurs look pretty silly)

...the Spurs took two out of three in the regular season, and the one they lost was a close one without Ginobili and without Duncan.

(And the second loss Phoenix suffered was the day after the trade for Jim Jackson. With Barbosa hurt, the Suns suited up nine guys. On the bench: Jake Voskuhl, Bo Outlaw, Steven Hunter, and Smush Parker)

...The Suns have a very thin team. Look at the Dallas series, their starters played 600,000 minutes per game.

(Actually, the matchup with the Spurs instantly lengthens the Suns bench. Against Dallas, there was nobody for Steven Hunter to guard, making for matchup issues for most of the series in the middle. With Nazr, Duncan, et al. up front for the Spurs, it gives the Suns a chance to give Hunter more minutes, and the fact that they have fewer big time offensive threats coming off of the bench, a la Stackhouse, the Suns
can matchup much better against San Antonio with their bench)

......

The X-factor in this series is Joe Johnson. If Joe cannot contribute significantly in this series, the Suns will not win the series. Period. The Spurs' perimeter defense is a suffocating one, and Joe adds that tension on the outside that will allow the Suns the stretch the likes of Bowen and Ginobili out as far as possible.

The upcoming series with San Antonio will be brutal for both teams. The major difference between the Spurs and the Suns is that the Spurs have no weaknesses. They have the most efficient half-court sets in the league; they can run a full-court game if necessary; their half-court defense is legendary; and their transition defense is unparalleled.

If San Antonio comes into this series with the same attitude that they had against Seattle, the Suns will walk all over them. But the Spurs are the favorites in this series for a reason. If they play Spurs basketball across a seven-game series, it will be tough for the Suns to win.

But I'm not conceding the series. Far from it. I believe the Suns will continue to surprise the doubters across the country. Here are some other things to take into serious consideration:

-The Spurs were a .500 road team this season. While they had the best home record in the league, a 21-20 road record gives the Suns a small edge because of the home court advantage.

-The Suns were the best road team in the league. They had the same record at home as on the road (31-10) and are 3-1 on the road in the playoffs so far this year. Winning two in the American Airlines Center is not an easy task.

-Duncan's ankle is tweaked. It's not a debilitating injury, but it could keep him from running up and down the floor, at least in game one.

The Suns must come out swinging. They must protect the home court. If you give a game away to San Antonio, you're digging your own grave. The Spurs have proven that they are vulnerable from a game-to-game basis this postseason. The Suns must capitalize on that, and take advantage of the killer instinct that they demonstrated in their second-round series.

I'm not going to be so bold as to predict an outcome to this series, because the truth is, I just don't know. I do believe that if the series goes seven, that the Suns will win because of the home court advantage.

But this is the series that everybody in the country wanted to see. A chance for the Suns to prove to every basketball fan across the country that the most fun team to watch can also be the best team.

Everybody who is not a Spurs fan should be rooting for Phoenix. Phoenix represents the good in the NBA: fun, fast-paced action with some of the most electrifying players in the league. The Spurs represent the evil in the NBA: a boring, grind-it-out defensive-oriented team with arguably the most boring superstar in sports history (Seriously, has there been a player in any sport as good as Tim Duncan that less fun to watch? Personally, I think Duncan is the single best player in the NBA, and I'd take him before anybody else to start a team. But I can't think of a guy who puts more sports fans to sleep than The Big Fundamental).

If the Finals matchup is Spurs/Pistons, expect to hear a collective "CLICK!" across the country as millions of casual sports fans turn the channel to watch reruns of CSI: Sacramento. The only person rooting harder than me for the Suns to make the Finals is David Stern.

The Purple Wall

2005-05-19T08:54:00.000-07:00

It's going to happen every game. It's not a question of if, but merely a question of when. The Suns are going to throw up that Purple Wall that they create each and every game, night-in/night-out. You can count the number of times that the Suns have failed to erect it this season on one hand; most of those times were sans the MVP. It's the secret weapon that the Suns have. Even playing shorthanded doesn't seem to deter the construction crew from building the Purple Wall.

The Purple Wall is the shock that the opposing team faces when the Suns turn on the jets in second half. Inevitably, the Suns' opponents shut down because they are just too damned tired to keep sprinting up and down the court with Phoenix, but the Suns do not tire. They keep going. Like the Energizer Bunny after a sixer of Red Bull. The Suns make a huge run almost every game. As somebody who has seen almost every game this season, it's a tremendous shock to me when they don't engineer a 15-0 run in a game.

I mentioned after game four that as the first half goes, so do the Suns. The two losses that the Suns earned this series had to do with flat, uninspired first halves. The Suns have outplayed the Mavericks in the second half in every single game this series. In game two, the Suns found themselves within an inch of a missed three-pointer of going up game two after coming out in the first half like their dogs had all been put to sleep the night before. Game four was far worse, as the Suns dug themselves such a deep hole, that Dallas was looking to claim title to the Grand Canyon. The Suns were unable to ride Steve Nash's 48-point explosion to a victory.

The Mavericks thought that they had acccomplished something amazing, that they had developed a gameplan: turn Steve Nash into Allen Iverson. Well, Nash did his best AI impression, and the Suns lost.

But in game five, Nash decided to emulate somebody different. Evidently understanding that 48 points, five assists, and a basket full of turnovers doesn't cut it, Nash did his best Jason Kidd impression and collected a triple double...by the third quarter.

The Suns didn't look so great in the first half of game five, but they didn't look hopeless. Keep it close, and they'll win, I said to myself. Just don't let it get out of hand. The Mavs will hit the Purple Wall, every team does.

The seven-point deficit at halftime looked like 20 to the 18,000 purple-clad Suns fans (fans, bandwagoners, whatever), but I knew. I knew that Dallas was playing with fire when the Suns came out in the third quarter, posting a five-point lead at one point. The AWA wanted the Suns to pull away, but the Mavs wouldn't let them. No, the Purple Wall hadn't been built yet. Too weak, not enough reinforcement, trying again in the fourth quarter. After all, the Suns found themselves within one point after three.

Ah yes, the fourth quarter. The wear on the tires of the Mavericks became visible. They needed another halftime to get their bearings. The fans did their best impression of the Cameron Crazies, hardly sitting down for the span of the final 12 minutes of play. The arena was so loud that individual screams from fans were swallowed up by the collective whole, creating a cacophony of Suns support. The noise disrupted more than one play, as the Mavericks looked as if the din was giving them headaches.

Shot clock winds down. Bad shot thrown up. Suns get the board. Fast break. Dunk. Was that a whistle? I think it was. Couldn't hear it. Neither could anybody in the crowd. A foul. And one. Crowd goes crazy. It's up. It's been built. The Purple Wall.

The Suns went up as many as 13 in the fourth quarter. Jim Jackson played like a man possessed, hitting 7-8 for 15 points, including a pivotal three-pointer that tore the roof off of the AWA.

But the game wasn't over. After the Suns had successfully built the Purple Wall, after the Mavericks got over their deer-in-the-headlights syndrome, Dallas made a small charge in the final minutes. The Suns couldn't finish up a quarter in this game five, allowing Dallas to sneak back into position as the clock approached zero in each period.

Then there was the heart-stopping moment. The moment that could have changed the series entirely. Under 30 seconds. Tick tick tick. Suns up eight. Tick tick tick. Jason Terry drains a three, Suns up five. Under 20 seconds left. Suns try to inbound the ball. They turn it over. Josh Howard gets a clean look at a three. The ball goes up. Tick tick tick. 18,000 fans hold their breath. Clang. Rebound Phoenix. Meltdown averted.

That three would have made it a two-point game with about 15 seconds left. I wiped my brow, let out a sigh of relief, and watched the Suns take down game five.

I watched as Steve Nash played as if he was sending Mark Cuban a long, angry message about picking Erick Dampier over him. I watched as Amare Stoudemire did his best Amare Stoudemire impression after stumbling out of the blocks in the first quarter. I watched as Jim Jackson tore the Dallas defense to pieces. I watched as the Suns bench was able to contribute in significant ways (Although Barbosa and McCarty didn't do much of anything on offense, they were huge factors on the defense end of the court, playing great on the ball, and team defense).

And now what? Well, it's important not to lose sight of the fact that this is a seven-game series. The Suns must win four games to take it down. Winning three games at the end of a seven game series is worth the same as winning zero games. But the reward for the Suns is that they get two chances to close out the series. Dallas has their backs to the wall, but a comfortable bed to sleep in. Game six will be a tough closeout game. The American Airlines Center will be filled with desperation. Unlike the AWA, the fans in Dallas know that if their team loses, the season is over.

Joe Update: The prognosis is not good. Joe is set to be re-evaluted today, but the Suns don't expect him back for the balance of the series.

Joe's absence in game five was glaring. The Suns went 5-19 from beyond the arc. Joe's ability to shoot from long range stretches opposing defenses further than their comfort zone. This pressure also opens up clean looks for the Suns other long-range assassins. It's going to be a tough closeout with him. Hopefully, the Suns can take care of business and allow Joe to get back for the next series. Hopefully.

As The First Half Goes...

2005-05-16T01:10:00.000-07:00

...so do the Suns. Game four played out like a replay of game two: the Suns came out like a flat, flavorless Manhattan in the first half, only to bounce back and keep pace with Dallas in the second, even outplaying them, but providing too little too late. The Suns' attack was handcuffed in the first 24 minutes by a barrage of triple teams on Amare.

What you must understand is that Amare is still a pup. He's very young, and still quite inexperienced. The fact that he's been able to perform at the level he has this postseason is a testament of his will, determination, and superior talent. But composure is something that Amare must develop if he's to ascend to the pantheon of great big men.

When Amare doesn't get going early on, he tends to lose his concentration. The Mavs threw a series of defensive swarms at Amare, and he wasn't able to keep it together. All a team has to do to stop Amare is to frustrate him for the first quarter and he's wound up like a toy car, and putt-putts along for the next 36. The more frustrated he becomes, the more he tries to take upon himself and the more mistakes he makes. He gets angry and tries to ram it down the throats of the defense, but ends up overplaying his position, fumbling the ball in traffic, or various other offensive disruptions. Amare was 3-8 from the field in game four. He was credited for four turnovers, but should probably have been credited more, as Nash's passes bounced off of Amare's hands and careened out of play over and over again. It was the frustration culminating into an offensive implosion.

And then there was the no-call. With rougly nine minutes left in the game, the Suns looked to make a charge. Hoping to cut the lead to single digits, Amare went up on Erick Dampier for one of his patented posterizing slams. Dampier slammed into Amare, a tremendously easy call to make. I guess the refs had pulled out their dog whistles, because I certainly couldn't hear it blow. Play resumed, Jim Jackson recovered the "rebound" and was subsequently fouled, yet again, by Dampier. The dog whistle blew again as play resumed, Dallas went to their end of the floor and put in a bucket. The result: a four-point turnaround breaking the spirit of a previously indomitable Suns team. The rest was just waiting for the clock to reach zero.

Now, I'm not one to blame a game on officiating. At least, not specifically. If the Suns had managed to keep the first half close, then they wouldn't have been in a position to need calls, so it's hard to point the finger at the ref crew for the entire game. But the first six minutes of the fourth quarter were really bizarre. The Suns got mugged and hammered while the refs twiddled their thumbs, while the Mavs were getting whistles if the defenders looked at their opponents cross-eyed. What the players want is a mark of consistency in calls, and minutes 1-6 of quarter four lacked any semblance of that desired characteristic.

The Mavs came out with a revolutionary game plan, something that had never been tried before: let Nash score as much as he possibly can and lock up everybody else. Let him attack the rim and go in untouched, let him wear himself out, racking up a whopping 48 points, but make sure nobody else gets any good touches.

After so many of Nash's passes went astray due to the suddenly slippery hands of Amare the complete lack of spacing on the court from the other three players, Nash did the unthinkable: he stopped passing the ball.

After Nash stopped getting the team involved, they stood around and watched Nash take it to the hole possession after possession. It was like the Suns had suddenly turned into the 76ers, complete with Allen Iverson and four guys standing around watching Allen Iverson. There was no movement off of the ball and nobody scrambling for positioning on the offensive end. It was horrendously orchestrated, as the Suns stood in the same spot, time after time, waiting to get the ball. It was the antithesis of Suns basketball, and Avery Johnson's defensive scheme was designed to create that disruptive style.

What was maddening was that when the Suns came out flat in the first half, it seemed that they were playing with the America West Arena in their minds. It appeared like they were content with a split in the first half, and were looking ahead to game five.

In the second half, there was more of a sense of urgency, but by that point, the Mavs had dug their claws into the Suns and were squeezing the life out of them. Too little, too late.

But don't expect the same result in game five. Amare tends to bounce back with unnerving ferocity after a clunker of a game. Expect him to leak out a bit, hitting the 16-footer, forcing the defenders to creep up on him. Expect him to find the open man before the double team can reach him. Expect Amare to crush the skulls of the poor defender who tries to keep him from the rack. Pity Dampier in game five, he's probably going to be battered and bruised.

This has been a series of adjustments for both teams. But I think D'Antoni sees the big picture a little better than Avery Johnson does. While Johnson is overhauling his strategy each and every game, D'Antoni is trying to encourage the Suns to be the Suns, while making small adjustments for the major adjustments that the Mavs throw at them.

Game five is pivotal. Whichever team wins gets two chances to close it out. Now, the Suns get two days of much-needed rest. The starters are wearing down. Without Joe Johnson, there isn't anybody coming off of the bench to contribute in any significant way, and the tires are starting to bald.

Unfortunately, Joe Johnson is not expected to play in game five. While there is no official time table for his return, the medical staff is expected to re-evaluate Joe's situation on Thursday. We might get a better idea of when he can come back at that point. For now, the Suns hope that the home crowd at America West Arena can boost their spirits. I'll be there, sitting in the best seats in the house, screaming my head off in hopes of energizing them to a game-five win.

Playing For Two

2005-05-14T09:29:00.000-07:00

The key difference between games two and three is that the Suns played for 48 minutes in game three. The Suns didn't bother to show up in game two until about halfway into the second quarter, and they lost the game as a result.

Last night, the Suns came out swinging. They demonstrated their ability to face some adversity as they went on the road shorthanded and came away with an important game-three victory.

Joe Johnson's absence wreaks havoc on the Suns' bench, especially when playing a team like Dallas. Since Dallas committed to playing small ball with Phoenix, the Suns don't have the ability to send Steven Hunter out onto the floor to disrupt shots. There was just nobody for Hunter to guard, and that was reflected in Hunter's two-minute appearance in the game.

Walter McCarty picked up five fouls in only nine minutes without scoring a point; the only bench player that scored for Phoenix was Leandro Barbosa, who put up five points in 16 minutes.

But the starting five ran and ran and ran, and by the end of the fourth quarter, Dallas was just too tired to run with Phoenix any more. The Suns went on a lightning-fast 15-0 run and buried Dallas late in the fourth.

Dallas was held to 39% from the field and 1-18 from beyond the arc. There isn't a team in the NBA that can put those numbers up and expect to win the game. The game plan resembled game one: attack the basket with Amare regardless of matchup; get Nash penetrating, allowing him to put in the hole or kick it out to one of the long-range assassins; run, run, run.

Marion completely locked up Nowitzki in game three. Although he was able to go for 21 and 13, Dirk shot 33% from the field (8-24). Marion frustrates Dirk, and it's clear to my why. At 7-feet, Dirk is used to being able to shoot over most any defender. Marion is a mere 6-7, and Dirk sees that height advantage and wants to exploit it. The problem is that Marion has deceptive length, and his ability to get up in the air quickly allows him to contest Dirk's patented 17-foot jumper.

(Please note that Shawn Marion was left off the All-Defensive 2nd team in favor of Andre Kirilenko. Kirilenko is an amazing defender, but he missed 41 games this season, and has no place being on that team over a career free forward who shifted over to power forward and locked up guys all season long.)

And so, the Suns go into game four playing with house money. They have the confidence and the swagger to go in and get two in Dallas. If they do, Dallas is staring elimination in the face; if the Suns drop game four, the series shifts back to Phoenix, where the Suns would have reclaimed the home court for the best 2-of-3 contest that would transpire.

The seven-game series is an interesting animal. The balance of power seems to shift with every game: at 1-0, the Suns looked unstoppable; at 1-1, the Suns looked like they were going to have to go back to the drawing board; now at 2-1, the Suns have put themselves back in the driver's seat up to game five.

Now the Suns really can play for two in Dallas, and if they get game four on Sunday, we'll see if they have that killer instinct to knock Dallas out in five.

But first thing's first: game four.

Podcastin' with Lance

2005-05-13T08:23:00.000-07:00

Check out my appearance on Swish, a podcast on all things NBA. Thanks to Lance and Sam for having me on.

They were generous enough to give me 15 minutes.

Check it out and enjoy.

Joe Update

2005-05-12T15:09:00.000-07:00

Joe Johnson will not make the trip to Dallas, meaning he misses games three and four. The Suns' medical staff will re-evaluate him next week to see if he can play in game five.

This is bad news for Phoenix, but now that mid-season acquisition of Jim Jackson is looking like a Godsend. Phoenix has to get down to business Friday night and take down game three, without looking ahead to game four. Going down 2-1 is not something Phoenix is going to want to deal with, so let's avoid that altogether, fellas.

Advantage: Dallas

2005-05-12T08:48:00.000-07:00

In the playoffs, the lower seed rarely expects to take the first two on the road in a 7-game series. When the game one buzzer sounds, if the road team has been defeated, they can look themselves in the mirror and say, "Yeah, but we can play for a split." The pressure is all on the home team to protect the home court in game two, or suffer the consequence of losing home court advantage in what becomes a best-of-5 series. This is how the playoffs are structured.

And so, the Suns fall victim to the structure. To a sense of complacency that a 25-point victory in game one somehow entitles them to play flat in the first half of game two. Down as many as 14 in the first half, the Suns looked like people expected them to look in game one: rusty.

Then, in the second half, they turned on the switch. a 16-2 spurt put the Suns ahead by five, but they couldn't pull away because Michael Finley...just...couldn't...miss. With the Suns' key perimeter defender, Joe Johnson, out with an injury (more on that later), Finley was able to run roughshod over the rest of the team. Finley on 12-18 shooting in what would turn out to be the critical performance in the young series.

It was a close game, a hard fought game, a game that could have easily swung in the Suns favor. But it didn't, and the Suns are looking down the barrel of two very tough road games in games three and four.

Q's three-pointer at the buzzer clanged off the side of the rim, it was a contested shot, but a shot I wasn't unhappy with. It's the exact guy I want taking that shot, too, so I don't know if I have a lot to complain about on that front (even though Q was obviously plan B in that drawn up play. I just wish they had designed it specifically that way to get Q a cleaner look). After that miss, the little things look huge: Amare's missed dunk with under two minutes to go; Amare's missed chip-shot and Marion's failed put-back on the very next possession. One of those two insanely high-percentage shots go in, it's a different outcome. But they didn't, and the Suns 25-point game one beatdown of Dallas is for naught.

Protecting home court in the playoffs is paramount, and the Suns couldn't do it. Now, they must go into enemy territory without one of their warriors. Joe Johnson suffered a broken eye socket from a hard foul levied by Jerry Stackhouse. Although Dick Bavetta and company would rule it a flagarant foul, I have to say that it looked pretty clean to me. It was a hard foul, and he caught Joe in a vulnerable position from behind, but Stack was clearly going for the ball (and got the ball, too). Joe just got caught up on the rim and slammed onto the hardwood face-first, breaking his orbital bone. Joe will miss game three, and his status for the series is tentative, at best.

That's a big problem for Phoenix, who rely on Joe to be their most accurate long-range assassin. His presence spreads the floor out for Marion, Q, and Nash to get better looks at the rim from beyond the arc, and with Joe sitting out for the forseeable future, the Suns will not get the looks that they are used to getting from long distance.

Fortunately, the Suns have Jim Jackson to step into the role. Jackson has proven a most dependable bench player and was able to step in and produce when Q went down for a few games. However, the Suns have yet to play a game without Joe (he played in all 82 games for Phoenix this season), so that could seriously disrupt the chemistry. As I said, Joe is the Suns' best perimeter defender. He's not a total lockdown guy like a Bruce Bowen or Ron Arcrazy, but he's disrupter, causing turnovers, and his absence will be glaring.

So, now the Suns will face adversity for the first time since Nash went down in the middle of the season, and the first time in the playoffs. Nash and Co. were becoming accustomed to always winning playoff games. Now, they have to go into Dallas and play for two, rather than playing for a split, which they could have done if Q's three had hit the bottom of the net instead of the side of the iron.

It's not all gloom and doom, of course. It's only tied 1-1, but it's a bump in the road and the Suns are going to have to prove that they can take on this challenge.

Hopefully, Joe will be back for game four, mask in tow, and he can do his best superhero impression.

In Defense of Steve Nash for MVP

2005-05-09T22:46:00.000-07:00

This was an email I tried to email Skip Bayless about this column. Unfortunately, ESPN's email links are broken, and I couldn't send the email. So, instead, I'm posting it here. Just pretend you're Skip Bayless.

I guess you couldn't be with ESPN, or a sports columinst of any sort for that matter, if you didn't speak in absolutes.

I agree that it's ridiculous that Shaq has only one MVP award. For many years, I looked at the MVP as an MVPNNSO (Most Valuable Player Not Named Shaquille O'Neal) and eventually became used to the fact that, for some inexplicable reason, Shaq did not win the MVP award every year (Except in 2003, when Duncan won his second. Duncan was absolutely the MVP that year). It's kind of an even more twisted version of the Jordan MVPs, at least Jordan won five of them (He should have seven, Barkley and Malone have no business winning one over MJ). In this case, the media (hey, wait, do YOU have a vote?) felt that giving Shaq one was enough.

Can somebody explain to me how Duncan has two MVPs and Shaq only has one? Iverson? Hey, he's the best pure scorer in the NBA, but the guy will never win anything, ever.

Garnett deserved it last year, hard to argue.

But, saying that Nash winning the MVP is "laughable" is laughable. Amare, Marion, Joe Johnson, and Richardson had career years...because of Nash. The wide-open 3's? Because of Nash's ability to penetrate the lane and collapse the defense in on him. The alley-oops? You ever thrown an alley-oop pass? (wait, don't answer that one) They make it look a lot easier than it actually is- the timing and vision that it requires on both parts requires a lot of practice. And a lot of these alley-oops are in traffic. Nash's ability to see the open man is trumped only by one point guard in the NBA- the erstwhile Sun, Jason Kidd (who I would have given the MVP to in 2002 before Duncan, but not before Shaq). But what makes Nash so dangerous, so valuable even, is the fact that he has a deadly shooting range. You creep up on him, he'll zip around you; you give him a foot, he'll drill the jumper every time.

His ability to score on the perimeter allows him to run circles around defenses. Penetrate and kick, penetrate and lay it in, pick your poison.

So, smart guy, you might ask, why is it that Nash is only now breaking out? He was surrounded by stars in Dallas and never reached this plateau.

True, but Nash is the (pardon me, but I like this saying) straw that stirs the drink. You add the right ingredients and Nash is the best floor general around. Stoudemire is a great player and is going to be a perennial MVP candidate, but he's very young, and has a lot of leaks in his game. I'm not sure where you got the idea that he's a shot-blocker, Stoudemire averages 1.6bpg-rarely timely- that's .1 bgp more than Dirk Nowitzki, who nobody ever accuses of being a shot-blocker, so let's drop that charade.

Stoudemire has a serious problem passing out of the double team, as well. Nash makes it difficult to commit a double team on Amare, because Amare will just kick it back out to Nash for the 20-footer.

These high-flying acrobatics would not be possible without Nash. You don't see how much Nash opens up the floor, much like the people who claim that Wade is the Heat's MVP (a crazy notion, indeed) can't see how much Shaq opens up the floor. Nash is the reason that the defenses are stretched so thin. If you clog the lane, Nash swings it around the perimeter, if you guard the perimeter, Nash penetrates and kicks like nobody in the league. It's like an inverse Shaq effect.

Amare is the X-factor for Nash's ability to leap to the next level, obviously. Amare is the perfect pick-and-roll guy. He's a dominating low-post presence (something the Mavs never had) and has the ability to step out and hit the 16-footer with regularity. While Amare has elevated Nash's game, Nash has elevated Amare's game even more. It's a two-way street.

The effect is contageous. The team sees Nash sharing the ball, and everybody wants to do it. They all want to be involved.

Also, PG is by far a more complex position than center. You have the ball in your hands more than any other player and are responsible for making the decisions in a split-second. Without somebody to handle the ball, who gets in to the big guy? Name me a great center in the post-Chamberlain era that didn't have at least a decent ballhandler to dump it in to him. As Charles Barkley said, "Any knucklehead can score." Running an offense that has no structure like the Suns? An all-improv, all the time offense? Now THAT's difficult.

Now, don't get me wrong, if Shaq had won the award, I would have been fine with it. If I had a vote, I would have had to split it between the two somehow.

Shaq went out East and dominated. Out East where there is virutally no size. Out East where the second best center is a complete offensive liability who, despite being named Defensive Player of the Year three times now, couldn't guard Shaq one-on-one if Shaq played on his knees. Yes, I understand how dominant Shaq is, and he's very valuable, and it's an outrage that AI and Tim Duncan won awards over Shaq, but the East is still Miami, Detroit and a bunch of scrubby teams (Indiana would be a legit contender if they didn't have Ron ArCrazy to worry about). The West is a minefield of tough teams, even with Shaq in South Beach. And the Suns STILL finished with the best record in the league.

And Away We Go: Round 2

2005-05-09T22:12:00.000-07:00

Eight days of rest for the Suns was supposed to make them rusty coming out of the gate in game one against Dallas. Instead, they found used some WD40 and ran Dallas off of the floor. This was supposed to be the team that could run with the Suns, a team with a slew of shooters that could compete. What we saw was the glaring interior weakness of the Mavericks. Avery Johnson is going to have to solve the Amare Stoudemire puzzle if Dallas is going to compete in this series. With 40 points, 16 rebounds, and a truckload of attitude, Amare led Phoenix to a 127-102 game one beatdown of the Nashless Mavericks.

Naturally, I expect Dallas to come out better prepared in game two, but I'm not sure that they have a solution to close out Amare in the lane. Dampier is just too slow and clumsy to stick with Amare, Alan Henderson is just too slow and clumsy to stick with Amare, and Shawn Bradley is just too slow and clumsy to stick with Amare. If they collapse on him in the paint, he's going to kick it out to one of the 3-point assassins, if they let him run around down low, he's going to average 40 for the series.

It's not going to be a 25-point obliteration every night, but the Mavs gave this game away. The Suns were willing to take it, but they get one win for it and have to prepare for an angry Dallas squad on Wednesday. If the Suns can protect home court, expect that momentum to carry over and get a split in Dallas. If they drop game two, then the series starts anew with Dallas getting the home court. That's the problem with this situation: the road team is looking to get a split, so dropping the first one isn't fatal for Dallas.

Dallas and Phoenix play similar styles, but Phoenix does everything just a little bit better than Dallas, and in a 7-game series that will become clear. Amare is the X-factor in this series. With Memphis, the Suns had to work the ball around to get it in to Amare. With Dallas, Nash can just dump it in on the screen and roll.

Again, I don't expect this series to be a massacre, but I can't see Dallas keeping up with Phoenix for the series.

Suns in 6.

The Most Unlikely MVP in NBA History

2005-05-06T20:49:00.000-07:00

ESPN is reporting that Steve Nash will take down the MVP hardware.

It's pretty difficult to overstate how historical this is for the NBA. To fully appreciate it, we need a bit of historical perspective.

First, about Nash. Nash is a three-time all-star; only Bill Walton has fewer All-Star appearances (2) as an MVP-winner. Nash has been on the 3rd All-NBA team twice, never been on a 1st team, or even a 2nd team, for that matter (Something accomplished only by Wes Unseld, who never made one of the first two teams before he won the MVP in 1969. Curiously, Bill Russell won the MVP in 1958 and was named 2nd team All-NBA that year. Go figure that one out.) at 6'3", Nash is just the second player under 6'6" to win the award in the last forty years (Iverson took it down at a pint-sized 5'11". I know he's listed at 6'0" but we all know he's 5'11"). Nash is also only the fourth point guard in NBA history to win the award (Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Cousy are the other three).

These accolades lend themselves to Nash being a second-tier point guard. He has lived in the shadows of point guards like Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Tim Hardaway, and Stephon Marbury.

As far as the Suns are concerned, you'd be in a serious arguement calling Nash even the third-best point guard the Suns have ever had. Jason Kidd, a surefire Hall of Fame point guard, was clearly the best floor general the Suns ever had (indeed, I would argue that Kidd should have won the MVP playing for the Nets in 2002 when Duncan won his first); Kevin Johnson was probably the second best. Then you have a three-way arguement as to the third best: Steve Nash, Stephon Marbury, or Dennis Johnson.

Keep in mind that the only other Sun ever to win MVP- Charles Barkley- wasn't just the best power forward in Suns history, he was far and away the best player the Suns have ever, ever had (not counting Barkley who will be inducted once he is eligible, there is only one Sun in the Hall of Fame: Connie Hawkins).

Now, consider that every single player ever to win the NBA MVP is either

A) In the Hall of Fame
B) A mortal lock to be in the Hall of Fame

Previous to Nash winning, there were eight MVPs who are not in the Hall of Fame, and only because none are eligible yet:

Michael Jordan
Karl Malone
Tim Duncan
David Robinson
Hakeem Olajuwon
Allen Iverson
Kevin Garnett
Charles Barkley

Steve Nash becomes an MVP who probably won't make it into the HOF. The only other MVP you look at and say "Huh?" about his HOF credentials is Bill Walton (2-time All Star, played in 50 or more games only 6 times in his career, career averages of 13.3ppg and 10.5rpg. As far as I can tell, Walton made it into the HOF based on his college career and his one MVP-season in the NBA, which he led the Trailblazers to the NBA Title), but he's a HOFer, so it brings us back to Nash.

Granted, if over the course of the next 5 years on his contract, Nash wins a couple more assist titles, wins AT LEAST one NBA Title, maybe finishes in the top three in MVP voting one more time, and makes the All-Star team every year, it would bolster his HOF credentials, but as it stands now, he's not a HOFer, and that makes this award that much more surprising.

The NBA MVP means greatness. It really does. Nash had a great season, no doubt about it. There's no way that you can say that Nash definitively does not deserve the MVP award, but I don't think that you can't Shaq doesn't deserve it, either.

I think Nash winning the MVP had as much to do with the media liking the novelty of a white point guard winning the MVP as it did anything else.

As a Suns fan, it's cool. However, I would much rather have the NBA Title, and I'm sure Steve Nash would, too. Fortunately for the Suns fans, the two are not mutually exclusive. The Suns still have a crack at the title, and if they do win, it would be the greatest season in Phoenix Suns history.

Regular Season Awards Update: Comments on the Winners, Part I

2005-05-03T11:49:00.000-07:00

Most Improved Player: Bobby Simmons

It's hard to justify giving the award to LeBron, because he's such a big star and it would seem like a backhanded compliment to give it to him, but the truth is that LeBron stepped his game up to top-ten player in the NBA level. However, the MIP is often given to a guy who toils in obscurity and then steps up into the spotlight, not to a guy who is already in the spotlight and takes up even more of the stage the next year. It's a safe choice, but not the right one.

Defensive Player of the Year: Ben Wallace

Another safe choice: when in doubt, pick the guy that's won before. Bruce Bowen came in second this year, so it was between one of the top post defenders and one of the top perimeter defenders. I would make the case that Bowen isn't even the best defensive player on his own team (Duncan), but he doesn't do much of anything else, so he gets respect for his shut-down abilities. I'm still of the opinion that Tayshaun Prince should get it, because of his ability to defend BOTH in the post and on the perimeter. But, Big Ben is a lane-clogger, and the captain of the defense on the Pistons, so the voters went with the obvious choice and picked him.

Sixth Man of the Year: Ben Gordon

He's "The Closer." Bring him in off the bench in the fourth quarter and he's nails. So many big games this year, it's hard to imagine the Bulls getting home court in the first round without him, and they probably fight and scratch and claw at the bottom of the playoff pile. There were quite a few legitimate candidates this year (it could have easily been Ricky Davis or Vladimir Radmanovic), but Gordon was there to give the Bulls a lift off of the bench, a surprise team after starting the season of on a 9-game losing streak.

Rookie of the Year: Emeka Okafor

Here's the first one that I really, really disagree with. I'm of the opinion that the voters didn't think it right to give Gordon both the Sixth Man award and the ROY, but the truth is that no rookie deserved it more than Gordon. So Okafor led an 18-win team in points and rebounds. The report on ESPN.com says that Okafor was under intense pressure. I disagree. I don't see how Okafor could have failed. They had no other players, he was going to touch the ball every time down the court, and he's on a expansion team. If he doesn't average 15ppg and at least 10rpg, that's a story.

Note that I don't think either Okafor or Gordon will be the best player of this draft class. In a few years, when Dwight Howard has a few seasons under his belt and Donald Sterling has failed to match Shaun Livingston's second contract, look for those two guys to dominate the NBA at their respective positions. But as far as performance this season, it's a no-brainer: Ben Gordon.

The Closeout

2005-05-01T19:57:00.000-07:00

With a firestorm of first-quarter three pointers, the Suns asserted their dominance early on. They would face adversity in this game, adversity that they would overcome with grit, determination, and raw power. With a 21-point lead in the first half, the Suns looked as if they would dismantle the Grizzlies, but Gasol and friends didn't let that happen immediately. Clawing their way back, the Grizz managed to shave it down to 7 by the half, eventually tying it in the third.

But it was how the Suns responded to allowing the 21-point lead to melt away, rather than the collapse itself, that typifies this year's incarnation of the Solar Express. There was no perceptible dropping of the shoulders, there was no look of doubt in the eyes, nary a thought of letting this one go and closing it out in front of the hometown fans crossed their minds. Instead, the Suns demonstrated the resiliency that they've shown all season, dug their heels in the ground and belted out a 123-115 victory. Now, the broom that has been sitting in a dark corner of the America West Arena for 10 years gets to clean Memphis off of the sidewalk. The Suns put up 114, 108, 110, and 123 on the fourth-best scoring defense in the NBA. The Grizzlies were known for being a bruising, physical team that could threaten to slow the Suns' attack down. During the regular season, the Grizzlies successfully held the Suns under 100 points three time, and everybody knows that the playoffs lend themselves to a slow-it-down grind-it-out style of play. That is, of course, unless you're playing against the irresistible force known as the Suns offense.

And yes, it's just the 8-seed. And yes, the Suns should have won in 4 or 5. But they did what they were supposed to do. Now, Phoenix gets rewarded with a week off while the Rockets and the Mavericks beat each other to a bloody pulp. It could be a sign of a game one letdown, however. The Suns must stay sharp for a week, make sure they don't let their guards down, because whoever comes out of that series alive is going to be battle tested and ready to rumble.

It won't be an easy path to the Conference Finals for the Suns, but for the past 86 games, they have blazed a clean trail to walk on. Best record in the NBA, first round series sweep, 4 wins down, 12 wins to go.

The march goes on...

Killer Instinct

2005-05-01T12:55:00.000-07:00

The 76ers played not to lose today, which is precisely why they lost to Detroit. Up 9 points with six minutes left in the fourth quarter, Philly tried to kill the clock, rather than going for the kill.

Detroit, in the meantime, attacked the jugular. In the last minute, Detroit was down two, the opportunity to tie, but Larry Brown draws up a play to take the lead, knowing that a miss means the series is tied 2-2. They played to win. And the World Champs go up 3-1 because Jim O'Brien and the 76ers are a weak team who don't know what to do with an edge.

Once the game went into overtime, it meant that the 76ers had given up. This is why the Pistons are the defending champs: they have the killer instinct.

For the Sixers, this is worse than a blowout loss. They saw the gleam of 2-2 in their eyes and dropped the ball because they were too busy looking ahead to game 5. Now, defeated and dejected, the Sixers must saunter back to Detroit for a ceremonial game five.

Moving right along...

Time to Stop Being Defensive: Notes on the Other Series

2005-04-30T20:44:00.000-07:00

Okay, now that Spurs fans and I have had our little row, it's time to set ye olde "Suns can't win in the playoffs" debate and talk about what is actually going on in the playoffs.

Here are some series by series comments:

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Kings-Sonics

In the first two games, the Kings looked very flat. They have a lot of injury problems (Peja, Miller, and Jackson are all playing while banged up), and are fighting to keep their heads above water. Arco Arena, however, is probably the loudest arena in the NBA, and the Sacto fans let their presence be known in game 3. But, in the end, the Sonics are healthy and the Kings are not, Sonics will move on.

Rockets-Mavericks

Wow, this series has everything. It's easily the best series in the first round on either side of the bracket. The Mavs looked cooked after dropping the first two at home, but Houston now goes back to Dallas with their tails between their legs. The Rockets were ready to put the hurt on Dallas, but their failure to get one in their own gym has be humiliating. Momentum is on the Mavs' side, now it's a best 2-of-3 series, Dallas regains the home court, and I look to Dallas to take it in 7.

Nuggets-Spurs

Game 2 was just embarassing. In the playoffs, teams can't afford to give games away, and the Nuggets just didn't show up to the arena. Now, the Spurs are up 9 at the half of game 3 more or less sans the best player in the NBA. Tim Duncan has been watching the game from the bench due to foul trouble. Ginobili is tearing the Nuggets to shreds. We'll see what adjustments make for the 2nd half, but I don't think it will much matter. I expected a good series, but after seeing the Nuggets lay an egg in game 2 after stealing on in San Antonio, I think the Spurs win in 6.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Nets-Heat

What's there to say about this one? The Heat are going to walk into the Conference Finals. I wouldn't be surprised if they went 8-0 into their showdown with Detroit. The Eastern Conference Playoffs are just a dog and pony show for the eventual ECF matchup of the giants. Heat will sweep, but that's not really news to anybody.

Bulls-Wizards

I was really impressed with the Bulls' ability to win both games at home. They are missing two key components of their squad and still managed to stave off a Washington team that can put up the points in a hurry. Then game 3 happened and reminded me why I picked Washington to win the series. I'm not so sure now, though. All Chicago needs to do is hold court and steal one in Washington. I'll say this: whichever team wins game 4 will probably go on to win the series.

Boston-Indiana

It's 2-2, but it's an awful series. Jekyll and Hyde basketball, as one team gets blown out then the other team responds with a blowout. What is going on in this series? Can we expect three more blowouts? I don't know, but Boston winning without Toine is a huge confidence boost, and I think they win the next two games to take the series down in 6.

76ers-Pistons

Now that Philly got that "winning a game" feeling out of their system, Detroit can continue to pound Philly to take it down in 5. Allen Iverson is the best pure scorer in the NBA. He's fun to watch and an amazing basketball player. But I would rather pour searing hot lava into my eyes than have him on my team. If he listened to Larry Brown, maybe he'd have turned it around in time, but AI is doomed never to win, ever. He won't even sniff the Finals ever again, much less make it to another Finals series. He's the exact opposite of a team player. Even the "new" AI that averages 8 assists per game can't grasp the concepts of team basketball. Have you ever actually watched the 76ers play? It's AI and four guys standing around watching AI.

A Quiz

2005-04-29T20:37:00.000-07:00

I have a quiz:

1) How many wins/losses do the Suns get for beating Memphis at home by 5?

A)1 win
B)2 wins, the tough victory also counts as a moral victory
3)1 loss, beating an 8 seed by 5 at home is not really a victory

2) How many wins/losses do the Suns get for beatin Memphis on the road by 20?

A)2 wins, the series is over, move on
B)1 win
C)0 wins, they should blow out Memphis, so what?

3) How many wins/losses do the Nuggets get for stealing a game from the Spurs on the road?

A) 1 win
B) 2 wins, they'll get one at home now that they have the home court advantage
C) 0 wins, San Antonio's going to back door sweep, anyway, they got thumped by 28 in the next game (which leads to the final question of the quiz)

How many wins/losses do the Spurs get for beating the Nuggets by 28 in game 2?

A)4 wins, too demoralizing to come back from
B)1 win
C)2 wins, they'll get one in Denver and get it back to Texas for a pivtoal game 5

The answer to all 4 questions is 1 win.

You win by 1, you get one win. You win by 45, you get one win.

Look, I'm glad the Suns smoked the Grizzlies by 20. It puts them in a commanding 3-0 position, and an 8-seed coming back from down 3-0 is so small, that it's statistically insignificant. But I have no illusions that the Suns still have to win one more game.

Margin of victory only counts in college football, and even then, only indirectly. A win is a win, a loss is a loss.

Period.

Debunking the No Defense Argument

2005-04-28T20:55:00.000-07:00

Ok, we're going to go over this verrrrrrry slowwwwwwly, because, for some reason, people don't understand basketball at the basic levels and are insisting that the Suns have "no defense whatsoever."

The Suns play average defense. It's not stellar, but it's definitely not a defenseless team. "But Brent," you say, "they give up more points per game than any team in the league."

Ah, yes, my friend, but you are missing a key component to this equation: When a team plays the Suns, that team gets more possessions than they do when they play a team that doesn't zip up and down the floor. If you've ever watched the Suns play, you've seen them score with 21 seconds left on the shot clock. That's a three (3!) second possession. Often, the Suns are scoring with more than 14 seconds on the clock. With such rapid-fire scores, the opposing team is going to get more possessions, which lead to more scoring opportunities, which lead to more points (play the percentages for a second).

Let's crunch a few numbers:

Suns allow 103.3 ppg, dead last in the league

BUT

They allow 44.5% froom the field, which is #14, which puts them at the bottom of the top half of the league in that category.

Take a look at Indiana, who is #10 in the league, and who nobody is accusing of pourous defense this year, even without stopper Ron Arcrazy, what do they allow? 44.0%.

44.5-44.0= .5%

That's one half of one percent. A team shoots about 75 shots a game (roughly), that means that the Suns allow one-third of a basket per game more than Indiana. That's 2/3 of one point per game more than the Pacers allow, if the teams were to take the same number of shots. .67 points per game difference based on equal number of shots.

Also of note: The Suns are #3 in the league in 3PT FG% defense. They have length on the perimeter (Marion and Joe Johnson are very good defenders), disrupting shots, also their frenetic pace encourages other teams to run with them, tiring them out, making them miss those bombs.

All together, now: The Suns allow more possessions per game based on their fast-paced style of play, leading to more points. Not because they don't play defense.

Now I'm not here trying to make an argument that the Suns play great defense, because they don't. They play average defense. But, as superbasketball genius John Hollinger has oh so brilliantly discovered: Great defense doesn't win championships any more than great offense wins championships.

Don't believe me? Take a look at the last 32 NBA Champions. Of those 32 teams, the following won titles with what could be considered "great" defense (defined here as a defensive efficiency rating that's +5 better than league average...defensive effeciency is points allowed per 100 possessions):

1996 Chicago Bulls
1998 Chicago Bulls
1999 San Antonio Spurs
2000 Los Angeles Lakers
2004 Detroit Pistons

Here are the teams in the last 32 years that have won with a "great" offense (again, +5 better than the league average in offensive efficiency, which is similarly defined):

1985 Los Angeles Lakers
1987 Los Angeles Lakers
1988 Los Angeles Lakers
1991 Chicago Bulls
1992 Chicago Bulls
1996 Chicago Bulls
1997 Chicago Bulls
2001 Los Angeles Lakers*

*2001 Los Angeles Lakers is the team that has the worst defensive efficiency in the last 32 years.

That's 7 teams with great offense, 4 teams with great defense and 1 team with both (1996 Bulls).

So, take a look at that and think before insisting that defense wins championships. Because that's 15.6% of the champions in the last 32 years. The way people talk about it, you'd figure the best defensive team in the NBA wins the title every year, and the great offensive teams never win. What these data say are: A great defensive is actually LESS likely to win a championship than a great offensive team. (If you remove the '96 Bulls, that's still 7-4 in favor of great offense).

So, the Suns who play GREAT offense, and AVERAGE defense deserve some damned respect.

Furthermore...let's go over this concept of how many wins which team won when they won the title. I don't care if the Suns go 16-12, if they win the title, they win the title. The Lakers almost swept through the playoffs in 2001 (the only game they lost was in the Finals), but if the Spurs or the Suns or the whoever is the champion wins 16 games in the playoffs this year, they are the champions, regardless of how many games they lost leading up to those 16 wins. There's a reason they play 7-game series: most of the time, the better team wins the series. It's a long-run goal to beat a team four times in seven tries, and the best team does it 4 times in a year. That's all it takes. There are no disputes after that.

Futherfuthermore...The Mavs never got past the Western Conference Finals, this is true. But, the Mavs also never had a legitimate inside presence. The Suns have an X-factor that the Mavs have never had: Amare. He's an unguardable All-NBA performer. The Mavs were stricktly a perimeter team. Dirk, Nash, Finley, and the cast of thousands of slashers and perimeter stars...not a single back-to-the-basket-low-post threat. They still don't have it this year (All due respect to Eric Dampier, he ain't no Amare).

ALSO:
Suns are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA (39.3%) (effective FG%: 59%)
Last year, Dallas was #11 in the league (34.8%) (effective FG%: 52.2%)
Two years ago, Dallas was tied for 3 (38.1%) (effective FG%: 57.2%)

Take into the account that the Suns are the best 3-point shooting team in three years in the NBA (they also set an NBA record for 3-point field goals made in a season) and they have a legit low post superstar, the Suns don't really look like the Mavericks at all. At all, at all. Why do you think Steve Nash's assist numbers skyrocketed? Why, because the Suns are a better team, of course. Is there a more specious claim that the Suns won't win because Nash didn't win with Dallas? I don't think there is.

So, the I feel I adequately put two nonsense claims to rest

Nonsense claim #1: Suns play horrible defense
Nonsense claim #2: Nash couldn't win the the Mavs, so the Suns won't win

Is it 1-1 or 2-0?

2005-04-28T09:41:00.001-07:00

Whenever the Suns are televised nationally, I watch the national telecast as opposed to the local feed, because I like to hear what the national scene has to say about the Suns. It's been pretty frustrating to watch them this year on TNT and ESPN, because they have been getting killed by the "experts," first at the beginning of the season, when everybody said they couldn't keep it up over the course of 82 games, and now they are at it again, saying the Suns can't win in the playoffs with their style. You'd figure 62-20 would garner the team a modicum of respect, but you'd figure wrong.

Last night on TNT, the country was treated to the incoherent ramblings of John Thompson in the color commentary seat. Thompson was a great recruiter (Ewing, Mutombo, Mourning, etc.), but he did less with more talent than anybody in college history. He has how many championships (one)? And how many of his players went on to the NBA to have flourishing careers (many)? He lost to who in 1985? Villanova? What?

In addition to his dearth of coaching ability, he is as smart as a bag of hammers and approximately as articulate. And last night, he was pontificating on the Grizzlies-Suns matchup. The Suns took down the victory, but if you didn't know the final score and listened to Thompson, you'd have thought the series was going back to Memphis tied 1-1.

Thompson was spewing nonsense like (paraphrases follow): "Now Memphis has the confidence knowing that they are capable of beating this team, and they'll take that confidence back to Memphis with them for game 3." and "The Suns are not a great team, they are a good team."

I'm sorry, capable of beating this team? Do they get credit for some sort of phantom moral victory for losing by 5 instead of losing by 11? Does it make the series a 9-game series or something, some sort of weird NBA clause that says that when an 8-seed competes with a 1-seed, the series gets extended?

Perhaps we should break down the series a little bit here, analyze it from the perspective of a guy who actually watched the game?

Game 1- Memphis comes out with a specific game plan: Clog up the lane, take away Stoudemire's ability to pound it inside, make somebody else beat us.
Result: Gasol, Wright, et al. patrol the inside, leaving the perimeter wide open. Nash would kick the ball out to Johnson, Richardson, or Jackson and there wouldn't be a defender within five feet, making for very, very easy three-point shots. The Grizz successfully limit Amare to 9 points, but the Suns perimeter assassins shoot 47% (15-32) from beyond the arc. Any competent NBA shooter could hit with regularity with the space they were getting.

Game 2- Memphis changes the game plan: Open up the lane down low, keep them out of the high post, extend the defense out on to the perimeter to prevent the bombers from draining threes, let somebody else beat us.
Result: Suns shoot 29% (5-17) from beyond the arc, because the perimeter defenders are challenging shots. But the lane opens up for Nash to drop 15 dimes and Amare goes for 34.

Did the Suns play their best game last night? No, of course not. But (and how many times do we have to go over this, really), the best teams win games when they are not playing their best. The Suns made the plays when they had to and came away with a victory. If they get one in Memphis, then they can come back and wrap up the series in Phoenix.

The difference between San Antonio and Phoenix in the first round? The Spurs had their backs to the wall in game 1 and caved. They fired on all cylanders in game two and absolutely killed the Nuggets. But what position would you rather be in? Up 2-0 with a grind-it-out victory under your belt and confidence of knowing that you can go in and sweep? Or taking a dominating victory into what essentially turns into a best-of-5 series where you don't have home court advantage?

I don't want to overstate the case, but Grizzlies are not a bad team and Denver is a very good team. But Memphis wins a first-round contest in the the East. They had the fourth best scoring defense in the NBA, the sixth best FG% defense in the NBA, and are one of the deepest teams around (10-man rotation, and it's not unusual to see them play all 12 guys). Now they are the 8 seed, and the Suns should win in 4 or 5, but the Suns have put themselves in a position to do just that. They are up 2-0 and they are putting up 111 ppg against the fourth best scoring defense in the NBA.

The proof is in the stat line: Suns 2, Memphis 0.

Regular Season Awards

2005-04-26T23:16:00.000-07:00

Took me this long? I can't believe it. Anyway...

MVP: (tie) Steve Nash and Shaquille O'Neal

It's impossible to pick between the two. I make a case for one and then the other and they both make so much sense. Nash is the motor that makes the Suns run, no doubt about it. He gets open shots for everybody on the perimeter with his ability to drive and kick. The next time you watch the Suns play, take special note of how the defense reacts to Nash's penetrations. They are most often confused, because they don't know if A) He's going to kick it out on the perimeter for a wide-open three to one the snipers B) He's going to dump it to Amare for a rim-rattling slam (and subsequent three-point play following the inevitable foul) or C) he's going to toss up a circus fade away crazy shot that goes in every time. The entire starting five should take Nash out to dinner...every night for the next five years.

Then there's Shaq. And Shaq's Shaq. He may be having his worst season statistically speaking, but every point he doesn't score, Flash is dropping in. Flash has stepped up to become the premier player from his class. Yeah, yeah LeBron, I know, but consider the following: Number of playoff appearances by Wade: 2, by LeBron: 0. And don't forget, Flash pretty much single-handedly took the Heat to the second round last year. And did you see how many game-winning shots Flash his this year? Like a bazillion Now he's got Shaq, and Shaq/Wade is a better one-two than LeBron/Anybody. So, that's my explanation for that blasphemous statement. (Although Shaq/Kobe was better than Shaq/Wade, so, you know...) Shaq makes everybody on that team better (Damon Jones? Udonis Haslem? Sure, now you've heard of them).

It's impossible to pick just one guy this year. Normally, I'd say Shaq, no questions. But there is no way the Suns have 62 wins with Barbosa running the point again.

ROY: Ben Gordon

Look, I like Okafor, I do. And I'm pretty sure that neither Okafor nor Gordon will be the best player in this class (say hello to Dwight Howard and Shaun Livingston in two more years), but let's take a look at this from the "Most Valuable Rookie" perspective. Without Gordon, the Bulls are fighting for the 8 slot, probably looking at the lottery. The guy's a closer. He's Big Shot Ben and is capable of scoring 657 points in a quarter. He's nails, he scores, he hustles, he's got crazy handles, and he was the best rookie this season. Okafor was the go to guy on an expansion team that was about as good as I expected them to be in the Eastern Conference. Sorry, no contest.

Sixth Man: Ben Gordon

See above.

Defensive Player of the Year: Tayshaun Prince

The guy is freaky long. He's listed at 6'9", but his arms extend about 47 feet. He has the size to fluster you in the post and the length to shut you down on the perimeter. Bruce Bowen's an amazing perimeter defender, and there aren't many better post defenders than Ben Wallace, but Prince has the whole package.

Coach of the Year: Mike D'Antoni

D'Antoni wins the award more for what he didn't do than for what he did. He handed the ball to Nash, and said, "Run." And they ran and ran to the best record in the NBA. He didn't mircomanage the games, rarely called plays. Early in the year, in a loss to Sacramento, the Suns had the final possession after a missed shot, and D'Antoni didn't call a timeout. I loved that, because it didn't give the Kings a chance to react defensively. The Suns had four clean looks at the basket for the bucket, but couldn't put it through. It didn't work that time, but that philosophy carried through the season and was successful.

Most Improved Player: LeBron James

I don't think this award necessarily has to go to a no-name who stepped it up to become a good player (Bobby Simmons). I think that a guy making a leap into the stratosphere is just as legitimate. It may seem like a back-handed complement, but there it is. He's going to be the face of the NBA for the next 15 years, or so, and I'm glad it's him. When you watch this guy play, you say, "I'm watching something special." I'm sure he'll have a cabinet full of MVP awards, but for now, he'll have to settle for something like this, and a .5 percent chance of landing the 1st overall pick.

All-NBA Teams

First Team
G- Steve Nash- Unreal...
G- Dwayne Wade- Turned superstar overnight
F- LeBron James- Playoffs next year, I promise
F- Tim Duncan- Most of the time, the best player in the NBA
C- Shaquille O'Neal- Best...Center...Ever...

Second Team
G- Ray Allen- Amazing Season, Sonics came from out of nowhere, see you in Cleveland
G- Tracy McGrady- Slow start to the season keeps him off 1st team
F- Dirk Nowitzki- probably should be on 1st team, but 25, 7, and 7 will do it every time, sorry Dirk
F- Shawn Marion- Most underrated player in the NBA, by FAR
C- Amare Stoudemire- Would be 1st team if he player the PF, sorry Amare, you're center this year

Third Team
G- Gilbert Arenas- late second round pick, top ten scorer...makes sense
G- Allen Iverson- Best pure scorer in the NBA, too bad he'll never sniff the Finals again
F- Kevin Garnett- from MVP to the lottery. Wow, but still...KG
F- Antawn Jamison- Got no respect in Oakland, relegated to 6th man in Dallas, now he's tearing apart forwards in the East. Good for him.
C- Yao Ming- Late season surge places him here...that and there are no other centers in the NBA.

Blast Off

2005-04-26T10:53:00.000-07:00

I'd much, much rather play the Mavs in the 2nd round than Houston. The Rockets are playing great ball and even though they split the series by the grace of a MISSED DUNK!! (sorry), Amare has serious problems with Yao clogging up the middle and the perimeter players of Houston cut off Nash at the knees. They prevent effective penetration by dropping back Yao in the lane, pushing Wesley up front and trapping in the lane with Yao, Wesley, and a roving weak-side defender. Great game plan.

They play great defense, and with a 2-0 lead on the Mavs headed to Houston, I don't see Dallas coming back to win the series.

The road teams won all of the games in the series during the regular season. That Steven Hunter dunk is maddening (The Suns were down 17 going into the 4th quarter and clawed their way back, so they showed signs of life, at least, but still MISSED DUNK!), but I think that they won't make those mistakes in the playoffs.

Still, Houston scares me. They are a dark horse to come out of the West (along with Denver). They can beat any team in a 7-game series, but so can the Suns.

Of course, Phoenix has to get past Memphis, first. The Grizzlies did a great job of suffocating Amare in the lane with double and triple teams down low. Of course, when you double Amare, that leaves Joe, Q, and Marion open from downtown. Phoenix dropped 7-of-8 treys in the first quarter on Memphis, which is amazing.

I don't expect them to clog the lane so viciously in game 2. The Suns have been living by the three all season. They have 5 legitimate three point threats, and the odds that all four of them are missing on the same night is slim (meaning, it might happen once in a series, but it won't be a regular problem). We'll see how badly Marion's wrist is sprained, I guess. Could knock them down to four three-point threats.

Amare had only 9 points in game 1. Memphis was giving him the 16-footer that he's been drilling all year, but he wanted to ram it down their throats, which isn't going to work with Pau and Wright blocking up the lane. Take the 16-footer, extend their defense, then Amare can walk around them. That's been his M.O. all season: take the open shots and make them, causing the D to creep up, then blast by them, often getting them in foul trouble. In other words, expect Amare to make the requisite adjustments. If the Suns take game 2, they are in the driver's seat. Just get one in Memphis and bring it home to close it out in 5 in front of the home crowd.

2005-04-24T12:50:00.000-07:00

On today's ABC Pregame show, guest analyst Jalen Rose said he thinks the Nets will win "at least two games" in the series. Something tells me ABC won't be offering him a full-time position when his career is over.

In the meantime, Flash is slicing and dicing the Nets, as New Jersey can't get the ball closer than 10 feet to the hoop. Jump shots galore, series sweep, ahoy.

2005-04-23T14:01:00.000-07:00

Watching this game makes me revisit the MVP debate, where some of the pundits were pushing AI for MVP, arguing that he was having his best year and blah blah blah.

I love watching Iverson play. He's one of the three or four most entertaining players in the NBA to watch, but the guy doesn't make his teammates better. Career high in assists or not, he's a black hole who sucks the team out of the team. He made it to the finals once, he'll never get back. He's flat out the best scorer in the NBA, but he's far from the most valuable player.

Oh yeah, Sixers down 10 at the end of three. David Stern looks at his watch, "Can we start the next game, please," he asks with a sigh.